2015년 1월 11일 일요일

The future of world


The history of human-kind is the history of domination. Rome - Mongolia - The osman Truk - Portugal - Spain - Netherlands - France - England and now The U.S. The U.S was the most preferential country after WW2. Half of the wealth of the world was concentrated to the U.S. And still the U.S is a hegemonic power. It seems that the U.S will continue to remain as a sole super-power. However, everything has up and down. And there is nothing permanent.

There are several candidates for the next super-power


1. Russia
Putin's nick name is post Stalin. He is unconditionally advocated by Russians. Under Putin's control, Russia has obtained high economic growth, and Russia's military acquires powerful forces. More importantly, Putin has eagerness to be super-power. However, It looks way-behind to Russia. Ukraine incident and recent oil-price depreciation extremely shows the limitation of Russia. It is possible if Russia re-unites the 16 countries which were disbanded from former soviet union, but it seems impossible.

2. Japan
"Japan - next super-power" theory was prevalent in 1970s-1980s. However, no-one believes it anymore. 1970s-1980s was the heyday of Japan. 8 of top 10 banks were Japanese banks. But such a prosperity didn't last long. The Plaza agreement appreciated Yen. (1dollar - 350 Yen -> 1 dollar 100Yen). Because of the appreciation Japan has suffered "lost 2 decades". Moreover, because of Abe's absurd governance, Japan is becoming isolated from International society.

3. Last but not least, China
Actually, China is the strongest and most realistic contender for the next super-power. After the implementation of the reformation and open door policy in 1978, China has recorded 9.6% of annual growth in average. It is unprecedented. Chinese military forces were weak, but it has grown up with its economic growth. And China possesses 97% of rare earth resources which is essential for IT industry. And their one-party monopoly facilitates the process of official decision making. If the hegemonic power is transferred to other nation, that would be China.

However, China has to solve several problems.
1. Environmental problem
2. Law of diminishing returns
3. Corruption and Graft
4. Provincial problem - XinJian wigur, Taiwan, Mongolia, Tibet
5. Welfare or Economic growth
6. The gap between the poor and the rich

Who knows?